Take Five: Shaky September By Reuters

(Reuters) -U.S. jobs numbers dominate the agenda as markets brace for a choppy September, with France seeking a way through its political mess, Germany having regional polls and African leaders heading to Beijing.

Here’s your guide to the week ahead in financial markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Duncan Miriri in Nairobi and Dhara Ranasinghe and Naomi Rovnick in London.

1/ LABOUR OF LOVE 

With the Federal Reserve on the cusp of monetary policy easing for the first time in years, attention turns to the Sept. 6 U.S. employment data for clues on how aggressively the Fed might move in coming months. 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell flagged it was time to start reducing interest rates, and many in the markets expect the process to begin with a 25 basis point cut at the Sept. 17-18 meeting. 

Further signs of the labour market weakness that helped to roil markets in late July and early August could revive recession fears and cause investors to dump riskier assets. 

Expectations of heftier rate cuts have dented the dollar, which is hovering around one-year lows, in part on expectations that imminent monetary policy easing will narrow the yield advantage the U.S. has over many developed economies.

2/ VOLATILITY 

Global stocks have bounced back to near-record highs after an early August swoon driven by a Bank of Japan interest rate hike causing a feedback loop of selling and volatility. There could be more trouble ahead. 

Bank of America analysts say stock market volatility tends to rise in September and October. Citi strategists reckon market expectations of future stock market swings are too low. 

August’s selloff was ignited as carry trades that gambled on U.S. rates staying far higher than Japan’s imploded. Unsuccessful speculators sold other assets to cover losses, helping to wipe about $1 trillion off U.S. tech stocks.  

Markets have since moved to a view that Fed rate cuts will support stocks and bonds, but data surprises could disrupt currency markets and potentially cause further cross-asset shocks. 

3/ CHILL IN THE AIR 

Summer has ended abruptly in France. Having successfully hosted the Olympics, France needs a government, and the focus has returned to President Emmanuel Macron’s political crisis.

Socialists and Greens say they will not participate in further talks with Macron, who has slammed the door on a potential leftist government. 

Investors, waiting for progress, have shunned French stocks.

The index remains 5% below levels seen in June before Macron announced a snap election and has hardly risen this year, while German shares have rallied 12%. 

But Germany has problems of its own. Big wins for the far-right AfD in Sunday’s two regional elections is a headache for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fractious coalition before 2025’s national election. The economy is weak, shrinking 0.1% in Q2. The Ifo Institute president says the economy is increasingly falling into crisis. 

The markets’ focus on France, could soon shift to Germany.

4/ UNDAUNTED HAWKS   

Bank of Japan officials have not shied away from further rate hikes despite the August market ructions as BOJ chief Kazuo Ueda’s sharp hawkish shift collided with U.S. recession worries and an aggressive unwind of bets against the yen and global stocks sell-off.

Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino echoed his boss by saying monetary tightening would continue if inflation evolves as the BOJ expects and markets need to be monitored closely.

The course for consumer prices is far from clear though: Tokyo CPI, a bellwether for the nationwide figure, accelerated to 2.4% in August, above the BoJ’s 2% target. The closely watched core-core measure excluding fresh food and energy came in at just 1.3%.

Retail sales figures published at the end of August fell short of estimates, while household spending has declined every month since February last year. An update of that series is due on Sept. 6. 

5/ AFRICAN LEADERS HEAD TO CHINA

African government officials, including presidents and prime ministers from countries including Kenya, Senegal and South Africa head to Beijing for the ninth edition of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.

The once-every-three-years meeting – the main summit of engagement between both sides – follows data that showed annual Chinese lending to the continent rose to $4.6 billion last year – the first increase since 2016. 

However, the figure is far from the peak 2012-2018 levels of more than $10 billion at the height of the Belt and Road Initiative. The decline has been caused by China’s own domestic pressures and debt problems among African economies, such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia.

African officials will be keen to seek commitments from Beijing on boosting financing and investments, while Ethiopia, for instance, will focus on debt restructuring talks.

(Graphics by Sumanta Sen, Vineet Sachdev, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Prinz Magtulis and Kripa Jayaram; Compiled by Karin Strohecker; editing by Barbara Lewis)