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The death of Pope Francis is a time of mourning for millions of catholics around the world, but it also marks the beginning of an intricate succession plan. All eyes are on who will be chosen to become the next pontificate, and Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has already accumulated almost $4 million worth of bets.
The next pope is officially chosen in a conclave, a Latin word which means “a room that can be locked up.” Members of the College of Cardinals will cast their votes in the Sistine Chapel. Of the 252 members, 138 are currently eligible to vote for the pope, as they meet the age requirement of being younger than 80 years old.
But that hasn’t stopped laymen from around the world putting money on who they think will take over as the next head of the Catholic Church. As the world prepares for the pope’s funeral, these are the contenders who the market thinks have a shot as the top spot.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
The 70-year-old Italian cardinal is the favored successor to Pope Francis, with a 31% chance of being selected, per Polymarket as of early Tuesday afternoon. These numbers will fluctuate throughout the day and over the next few weeks. He currently holds the number two position in the Vatican: Secretary of State, which he has held since 2013. Though he was supportive of much of Pope Francis’s agenda, Parolin is seen as more of a moderate figure.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
After Parolin, the next most likely to be elected is Luis Antonio Tagle, a 67-year-old Filipino cardinal who has previously been called the “Asian Francis” due to his alignment to the pontificate’s values and agenda. Polymarket currently has him favored at 22%.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
The Archbishop of Bologna has a 10% chance of being elected. The 69-year-old Italian cardinal previously led a peace mission to Ukraine in 2023, and is known for his outreach to LGTBQ+ Catholics.
Cardinal Peter Turkson
If elected, the 76-year-old Ghanaian cardinal would be the first African pope in many centuries. Like Francis, he has been an outspoken supporter of social justice and previously served as the head of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. Polymarket puts him at a 10% chance of ascending to the papacy.
Cardinal Péter Erdő
The Hungarian Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest is tied with Turkson and Zuppi with 10% likelihood. The 72-year-old is seen as a conservative figure who would likely take a different approach to leading the Vatican than Francis.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
https://fortune.com/img-assets/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/GettyImages-1589407728-e1745340572622.jpg?resize=1200,600 https://fortune.com/article/pope-successor-predictions-polymarket-betting/Sara Braun
