Trump tariffs, March auto sales among 8 factors that could determine D-Street movement this week

Nifty ended March on a strong note, gaining 6% during the month, led by banking and financial stocks. When markets resume trading on Tuesday, several important domestic and global events lined up for the week are likely to impact them.

Indian stock markets will remain closed on Monday due to Eid-Ul-Fitr.

On Friday, Nifty closed at 23,519.35, down by 72.60 points or 0.31%.

Nifty remained volatile on the first day of the new series before closing weaker. It made a high near the previous swing of 23,800 before entering a consolidation phase, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

“If Nifty holds above 24,200, it may witness further upside. On the other hand, if it does not fall below 23,400, it might rise towards 23,600 and beyond,” De added.

Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this week:

1) Trump Tariffs

April 2 will be the day when Trump tariffs kick-in and the direction of the global markets including India, will likely take cues from the announcements.

2) US Markets

Indian markets will also take cues from Wall Street which ended with strong cuts on Friday. Dow 30 closed at 41,583.90, declining by 715.80 points or 1.69% while the S&P 500 finished 112.37 points or 1.97% lower at 5,580.94. Nasdaq Composite, which has been the biggest laggard among major Wall Street indices closed at 17,323.10, witnessing a 481.04 points or 2.70% fall.

3) March Auto sales

Domestic auto companies will announce their March sales numbers on April 1, Tuesday.

4) FII / DII Action

While the selling foreign institutional investors (FIIs) slowed down in March, the trajectory of markets could depend upon the intensity of their activity this week.

On Friday, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers at Rs 4,352.82 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 7,646.49 crore.

Also Read: FIIs dump Rs 1.27 lakh crore in FY25 as DIIs buy Rs 6 lakh crore in domestic equities

5) Technical Factors

Nifty made an attempt to stage upside recovery but met with selling pressure on Friday, finally closing in the red.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities said that a reasonable negative candle has formed on the daily chart, which indicates an inability of bulls to continue with follow through upward move. The present chart pattern signals chances of range bound action developing within a high low of around 23,650-23,400 levels, he said.

“Nifty on the weekly chart formed a small candle with a long upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a formation of doji type candle pattern (type of gravestone doji -not a classical one). This market action suggests more consolidation for the short term. The near-term uptrend of Nifty remains intact and the downward correction from the highs has not damaged the underlying uptrend so far. Immediate support is placed at 23,400 (200day EMA) and the overhead resistance to be watched around 23,650 levels and next 23,850 for the coming week,” Shetti.

6) Rupee Vs Dollar

The rupee logged its best month in seven years after hitherto reluctant overseas investors, in a stunning stance reversal, bought nearly $4 billion of Indian financial assets through the last 10 days of FY25, Reuters reported. Moreover the sovereign bond yields also recorded their steepest descent in 10 months amid shortening odds of another reduction in policy rates early April.

On Friday, the rupee gained by 31 paise, to end at 85.47/dollar-gains of 2.4% in March and the steepest for a month since 2018, the Reuters report said. Dollar sales from foreign and local banks also helped strengthen the rupee, dealers said.

As India’s growth credentials remain potentially unaffected through an expectedly circumspect year for global trade, currency experts are pencilling in further appreciation in the rupee on anticipated fund inflows into both local fixed-income and equity assets.

7) Crude Oil

Oil prices remain critical for markets with their impact on inflation and on the rate trajectory of global central banks including India’s. Higher crude oil prices do not augur well for the equity markets, fuelling inflation fears.

The US WTI oil contracts ended at $69.04, down by $0.88 or 1.26% while Brent oil futures were hovering near $73.63, lower by $0.65 or 0.88%.

8) Corporate Action

Wednesday, April 2 will be the ex-date and record date for Rs 25/share interim dividend of ADC India Communications and for 1:1 bonus issue of Capital Trade Links. It will also be an ex-date and record date for interim dividends of MSTC and RailTel Corporation of India and for 1:1 bonus issue of Ranjeet Mechatronics.

April 3 will be the ex-date and record date for bonus issue and interim dividend of Sal Automotive and United Spirits, respectively.

April 4 is ex-date and record date for — rights issue of Bio Green Papers, Interim Dividend of DCM Shriram Industries and final dividend of Varun Beverages.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)