Trump tariffs, Q4 earnings, FII action among 8 factors that could move D-Street this week

Donald Trump’s pause on tariffs for over 70 nations including India cheered domestic markets which ended with strong gains on Friday. Indian frontline indices narrowed their weekly losses to end with declines of 0.3%. When markets resume trading on Tuesday, a host of important domestic and global events lined-up during the week are likely to impact them.

On Friday, Nifty closed at 22,828.55, higher by 429.40 points or 1.92%.

Commenting on the day’s action, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities highlighted that the trend appears bearish, notwithstanding today’s gains.

“The Nifty faced resistance around the 21-EMA on the daily timeframe, leading to a close off the day’s high. The trend appears bearish unless it decisively moves above 23,000, where significant open interest has been added. On the downside, support is placed at 22,750; a break below this level could intensify the bearish sentiment. Conversely, a decisive move above 23,000 may trigger a rally towards 23,500, as suggested by the positive divergence in the RSI,” De said.

The domestic stock market will remain closed on Monday and Friday on account of Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar Jayanti and Good Friday, respectively.

Factors that are likely to impact movement when markets reopen this holiday-truncated week:

1. US-China Tariff war

Global Streets will be keeping a close eye on the US-China tariff war. President Donald Trump’s government has imposed a 145% tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the US while the dragon nation has retaliated by slapping a 125% duty on US goods. Trump, however, put a 90-day pause on tariffs imposed on more than 70 nations.

2. US Markets

Indian markets will also take cues from Wall Street which ended with strong gains on Friday. Dow 30 closed at 40,212.70, surging by 619.05 points or 1.56% while the S&P 500 finished 95.31 points or 1.81% higher at 5,363.36. Nasdaq Composite closed at 16,724.50, witnessing a 337.14 points or 2.06% rise.

3. Q4FY25 earnings

Over 30 companies will be announcing their January-March quarter earnings this week. Among them will be Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), Angel One, Waaree Renewable Technologies, Wipro, HDFC Asset Management Company, HDFC Life Insurance Company, Infosys, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank.

Also Read: Muted Q4 for banks as NIMs squeeze and tepid loan growth to hit earnings. 4 things to watch out for

4. FII / DII Action

Market actions will rely on how foreign institutional investors (FIIs) behave. On Friday, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 2,519.03 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 3,759.27.

Also Read: FIIs dump domestic equities worth Rs 31,575 crore in April so far; 2 triggers that could reverse trend

5. Technical Factors

Decoding the technical charts, Bajaj Broking Research explains what the formation of a bull candle means for Nifty. “Index formed a bull candle with a bullish gap below its base (22,400-22,696) signaling strong pullback from the oversold territory. We expect the index to consolidate in the range of 23,050-22,250 in the coming truncated week,” the brokerage said.

During this consolidation phase, volatility is expected to remain elevated amid Tariff related development and the progress of the Q4 earnings season, Bajaj Broking said, adding that only a sustained move above 23,050 levels will open upside towards 23,550 levels in the coming week. The index has key support around 21,700-22,000 levels being the confluence of Monday’s panic low and 24 months EMA.

6. Rupee Vs Dollar

The rupee closed at 86.04 against the dollar on Friday, gaining 64 paise from Wednesday’s close. However, it ended the week 0.9% weaker, marking its worst weekly performance in two months. The decline followed last weekend’s rally when the currency had strengthened to 84.97.

The rupee’s recovery came as the dollar weakened globally. The dollar index dropped 0.7%, hitting a three-year low amid rising concerns of a US recession. The shift in US trade policy and its fallout have driven investor sentiment away from US assets, benefiting Asian currencies. The offshore Chinese yuan edged up 0.1%, while the euro climbed 1.4% to $1.13.

7. Crude Oil

Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed more than $1 on Friday after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the United States could end Iran’s oil exports as part of an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to terms over its nuclear program.

The uncertainty around tariffs has led to a fall in crude oil prices by over 10% from their peak.

The US WTI oil contracts ended at $61.480, up by $1.41 or 2.35% while Brent oil futures were hovering near $64.76, higher by $1.26 or 1.99%.

8. Corporate Action

Plenty of corporate action will be lined-up in the holiday-shortened week which could act as triggers for the movement of individual stocks. In all, 13 stocks will see developments related to dividend, stock split, rights issue, spin-off and resolution.

The stocks include Mazagon Dock, CRISIL, Quess Corp and Remedium Lifecare.

Read Full Story: Mazagon Dock dividend record date, Quess Corp spin-off among 13 corporate actions next week

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)