US macro data has not deteriorated, but market falling in anticipation of a decline: Anurag Singh

Anurag Singh, Managing Partner, Ansid Capital, says every company in the US market is beating the numbers on Q4, but they are giving a weaker or a very cautionary guidance and that is when the markets correct. All the revisions from the analysts and everything for Q1, Q2, the earning revisions are the projections that are being downgraded. It is not that the actual earnings are low, but the projections are.

What is shaping up in the global markets and especially the US because there are recessionary fears. But other than that, it is the CPI data that is cooling off. Give us your reading and sense on where the US market is headed, taking cues from all of the macro data.
Anurag Singh: CPI came in good and I am of the view that with the efficient cutting of government spending that this government is doing along with the DOGE effort, we have seen the peak of the inflation already. If there was one worry whether inflation will cool down or prove to be sticky, it is now reasonably sure that inflation is not a worry. The worry is moving more towards the recession side, but certainly not on the inflation side. So, on that front, the news is good but there is a whole set of worries that the market is now thinking about.The grain of the truth here is that the US macro data now seems to be deteriorating, which is earnings, the GDP growth, unemployment data, even for that matter inflation. The way inflation has come out, for me, it is an indication of pricing power going away. It is not an indication that things are normalising. Is the best behind the US economy? If it is, are we in for another change of guard at the Fed?
Anurag Singh: This is the way I read it. I understand there is no clarity in the markets and you can take either direction. But in terms of macro data, so far it has not deteriorated. It is in anticipation that it will deteriorate. Inflation is cooling down a bit, but other than that, the data points are reasonably high. In terms of GDP, the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed are showing negative projections because of imports. They have tried to front-run the tariffs, but that is a slowing in the economy per se.

As long as people hold jobs, it is very difficult to make a case that the economy will slow down. So that is on the GDP front. But we will see what happens. In terms of earnings, this is interesting and why the market is taking a correction. Every company is beating the numbers on Q4, but they are giving a weaker or a very cautionary guidance and that is when the markets correct. All the revisions from the analysts and everything for Q1, Q2, the earning revisions are the projections are being downgraded.

It is not that the actual earnings are low, but the projections are that, well, in this environment, how do you really beat that? So that is where we are. I understand being the US, we could have managed it much better than the way it is, but of course, there is no Trump put in the market and people are wondering if there is a Fed put on hold. This time we will figure out on the 19th, so that is where we are. It is complex. There are no clear answers.