I’ll review how traders evaluate big geopolitical events in the wake of the jarring and horrifying failed attack on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. And then I’ll discuss a way for investors to position themselves if Trump can follow through on unifying the country after Saturday’s tragic event. In 2007, Nassim Nicholas Taleb published “The Black Swan,” a term that has since become popular in finance. Black swans and grey Swans refer to events that profoundly impact markets and economies due to their unpredictability and importantly potential for substantial disruption. Generally, black swans are rare and lie outside regular expectations, but they have a significant impact when they occur. Their rarity is what makes them unique and their impact, when they do occur, is significant. After they happen, people often rationalize them in hindsight, thinking they could have been predicted. On the other hand, a grey swan event is a potentially significant event that, while unlikely, is within the realm of possibility and can be anticipated. The 2008 “Great Financial Crisis”, sometimes abbreviated as “The GFC”, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the COVID-19 pandemic have been described by some as “black swans”. However, financial crises, global pandemics, and terrorist attacks have occurred numerous times since 1900. Sadly, assassinations and attempted assassinations of political leaders occur frequently enough that they should exist in the realm of possibility. We experienced another over the weekend. In his address to the nation on Sunday, President Biden called for unity, and Trump posted “UNITE AMERICA” on his Truth Social platform moments later. The fact that the tone of the rhetoric from many quarters is softening suggests we may be leaning in that direction. Unity, if we manage to find some, would be good for our society, and often, what is good for our society can be good for our economy and for our markets. Trading geopolitical events The knee-jerk reaction to tragic events such as these may be to reduce one’s market exposure, anticipating volatility in politics and in markets, and we may get some. Still, there are ways to maintain some upside exposure without taking all the downside risk other than hedging. An alternative is to own call options. For broad market exposure through next January’s inauguration, one could purchase the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) January $575 calls for about $21.50 ($2,150 as each contract has a 100 multiplier). We can hope for the best and plan for the worst. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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