Wall Street convinced of September cut—defying Donald Trump

In an interview with Bloomberg released last week, the current Republican presidential nominee attempted to quash any plans to cut the base rate ahead of the November elections.

“It’s something that they know they shouldn’t be doing,” Trump said of the politically independent, non-partisan organization.

The former TV star—having previously indicated he would oust chairman Jerome Powell—reversed his stance in the interview and said he would let Powell serve out the rest of his term “especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.”

Yet Wall Street, at least, seems certain Powell and his six colleagues on the Board of Governors are going to defy the Republican nominee.

Their confidence springs both from slowing economic data and from public remarks made by members of the board in recent weeks.

Last week Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the time for rate cuts is “drawing closer” but hasn’t yet reached its “final destination.”

Likewise New York Fed President John Williams told the Wall Street Journal there are “positive signs” that inflation is headed in the right direction, but would like to see some further data before making any cut decisions.

As a result many analysts are reading between the lines—not to an immediate cut but an imminent one.

Yesterday Reuters released its ongoing poll of 100 economists and when they believed rates will be cut. While all the experts said the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the next announcement at the end of July, 82% forecast the first cut of 25 basis points will come in September.

This notion isn’t out of the blue—the Reuters poll from the same time last month found approximately 60% of economists were confident of a rate cut in September, and that consensus is clearly growing.

This stance is backed more widely by the likes of Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who wrote in his weekly commentary for Wisdom Tree this week: “The market expects the Fed to signal a rate cut in September, provided economic trends continue as anticipated. I agree.”

Siegel points to rising numbers of jobless claims following the July 4 holiday, with the U.S. Department of Labor’s most recent figures revealing a 20,000 person increase from the week prior.

While Siegel highlighted that some economists believe jobless figures will fluctuate as the aftermath of Texas’ Hurricane Beryl evens out, he adds: “Such mixed signals complicate forecasts but the big picture suggests a slowing consumer.”

Wall Street’s thoughts

Chairman Powell will be mindful of warnings from the likes of Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan not to push consumers too far, but likewise will be continuing to push towards the Fed’s target inflation of 2%.

Which is perhaps why Bank of America, while acknowledging that a September cut is an option, is hedging its bets.

In a note seen by Fortune published Sunday, economists Tatonga Rusike and Mikhail Liluashvili wrote: “Our U.S. economists still believe the first rate cut for the Fed will come at the beginning of December. They raise concerns that the economy is not cooling enough to support an early rate cut. Signs for September are there but not strong enough to suggest actual cuts.”

On Governor Waller’s comments, Rusike and Liluashvili added: “It appears clear to us that the committee has moved closer to thinking that the first rate cut could happen in September. But, given Governor Waller’s remarks, we are not convinced the majority of the committee is ‘there’ on September just yet.”

Other institutions are taking a more confident approach.

Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its September call, especially in light of the comments from Waller and Williams. In a note seen by Fortune released last week the bank wrote: “These comments reinforce our view that the FOMC will deliver the first rate cut at its September meeting.”

Meanwhile UBS’s Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist, wrote Monday there is a :near-100% chance” of a September cut.

Rose said: “The market is now pricing in more than two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, including a near-100% chance of a September cut.

“Our view remains that the Fed will cut only once per quarter in the quarters ahead. However, the Fed could cut much more aggressively if the economy takes a turn for the worse. On the fiscal side, we do not expect significant policy changes until after the election.”