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The biggest Federal Reserve meeting of the year has come and gone, and investors seem to be giving the central bank top marks… it just needed overnight to think about it. The Fed cut rates by a half percentage point on Wednesday, surprising some traders who anticipated a quarter-point reduction. Stocks first took the news with some trepidation, fearing maybe the Federal Reserve knew something about the economy they did not. The major averages closed the previous sessions slightly lower after failing to hold on to sharp gains. After sleeping on it, however, investors now like the Fed’s move. @DJ.1 1D mountain Dow futures, 1 day Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped 500 points Thursday morning. S & P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were also up sharply, boosted by gains in tech. That strong move indicates investors may be coming around to the idea that the central bank did not start with a big cut because it’s trying to stop a recession, but because it realizes it’s too restrictive given where inflation is now. Data shows gains ahead And the data shows if a recession is avoided, Fed rate cuts lead to strong gains for stocks. Data compiled by Canaccord Genuity shows the S & P 500 averages an 18.6% gain one year after the central bank begins to lower rates and a recessionary period is avoided. The rate cut also took place with the S & P 500 trading around record levels. Historical Data too, shows that is not a bad thing, but rather revs up the market even farther in the ensuing year. “Over the past 40 years, the Fed has cut rates 12 times with the S & P 500 within 1% of an all-time highs. The market was higher a year later all 12 times with an average return of around 15%,” traders at JPMorgan wrote. “For now the near-term outlook for stocks remains generally constructive,” wrote Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. “Markets exist, for the near term, in an environment of 1) Easing Fed, 2) Slowing but “OK” economic data, 3) Generally solid earnings and 4) Positive momentum.” “As such, a continued grind higher in stocks over the near term shouldn’t be a surprise, even if that does stretch the absolute bounds of reasonable valuations,” he added. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning , BTIG upgraded DoorDash to buy form neutral. “DASH has been on our radar for a while given a positive category bias, consistently strong execution and steady upward pressure on estimates,” analyst Jake Fuller said.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/19/wall-street-loves-the-big-rate-cut-it-just-needed-a-day-to-think-about-it-.html
