- President Trump has announced a reversal of the ‘endangerment finding’
- This ruling found that greenhouse gases endanger public health
- Trump promises cheaper cars, but it could increase the cost of living
President Trump has reversed a landmark ruling that found greenhouse gases endanger public health, in a bid to lower car prices and ease the energy cost burden on American households.
According to the New York Times, for over 17 years, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has relied on scientific findings to justify regulations that limit carbon dioxide, methane, and other pollution from oil and gas wells, tailpipes, smokestacks, and other sources that burn fossil fuels.
Dubbed the ‘endangerment finding’, it was designed to reduce the effects of climate change and protect the health of US citizens and, arguably, the world’s population.
But this isn’t the view of President Trump’s current administrator of the EPA, Lee Zeldin. According to The Guardian, an emailed statement from a spokesperson said the endangerment finding was used to “justify trillions of dollars of greenhouse gas regulations covering new vehicles and engines”.
The potential rollback of this policy is expected to increase the country’s greenhouse gas emissions by 10 per cent over the next 30 years, according to the Environmental Defense Fund, an advocacy group. “We predict 58,000 premature deaths by 2055,” Peter Zalzal, Attorney, Environmental Defense Fund, told CNBC.
In addition to the potential effects on health and the global climate, the automotive industry is expected to face an extended period of uncertainty. This compounds the previous removal of federal tax credits for EVs, which saw sales drop dramatically, as well as the numerous trade tariffs that President Trump has imposed, making it almost financially impossible for some global automakers to export to North America.
However, the Trump administration claimed ignoring the ‘endangerment findings’ would save auto manufacturers and other businesses an estimated $1 trillion, although it has declined to explain how it arrived at that estimate, according to CNBC.
Fuel prices rise, innovation stalls
So what could the impacts be? First, removing emissions regulations could see US carmakers cut their spending on innovation and fall back on polluting and less efficient vehicles. According to some industry insiders, this would actually see Americans spend more money on fuel to complete the daily commute.
This increase in demand would then see the cost of fuel rise, which could increase the profits of the major oil companies by as much as $1.4 trillion, according to Electrek.
At the same time, a reduction in incentives to innovate could see the US auto industry slip even further behind in the race to develop more efficient and environmentally friendly vehicles. This could massively benefit China, which is already racing ahead in the development of next-gen battery and hybrid technology.
Despite financially supporting the current administration, Elon Musk and his company Tesla have been vocal about the endangerment finding, claiming that it – and the vehicle emissions standards which flow from it – have provided a “stable regulatory platform for Tesla’s extensive investments in product development and production”, according to CNBC.
Currently, the company’s sales have been stalling across the globe, with many claiming its lack of innovation has caused it to fall behind rivals.
EV uptake actually increases
On the flip side, this landmark reversal of policy could, in fact, increase demand for pure electric, hybrid, and generally more efficient vehicles, as US citizens flock towards models that could help reduce the daily costs of travel.
What’s more, States could step up and enact their own legislation that would overrule President Trump’s decision. California has been an advocate of cleaner EV technology and the general reduction in greenhouse emissions on a more local level.
Due to the extremely sensitive nature of the automotive industry, most automakers build vehicles to the strictest emissions standards, rather than risk making a production line overly complicated and expensive.
This could mean that those manufacturers based in the US would produce cars based on the toughest standards in the strictest states.
Lastly, automakers work to extremely long product development timelines, meaning this ruling isn’t going to immediately halt whatever is in the pipeline. Those EVs and hybrids that are due to hit the market in two or three years are still likely do so.
“Even despite this, almost kind of this war on EVs – getting rid of the subsidies, getting rid of the regulation – I think it’s been pushed to a point where you’re not going to see us turn totally around on EVs,” Alan Jenn, a professor at the University of California, Davis’s Electric Vehicle Research Center told CNBC.
Regardless, the recent decision by the Trump administration will likely be met with frustration by an industry that is currently going through arguably its most significant transition in 100 years.
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