Will Zee Entertainment’s FIFA World Cup deal turn the needle for its 3.3 crore shareholders?

Then came the surprise. Zee Entertainment stepped in and secured the rights, beating competitors including Reliance-backed Jio Hotstar, the broadcaster of the IPL, and Sony Ten Network, home to properties such as the UEFA Champions League, Roland Garros and WWE.

Investors have already started pricing in the opportunity. Zee Entertainment shares have risen over 30% over the past month ahead of the FIFA World Cup. The company has acquired exclusive television and digital rights in India for 39 FIFA events through 2034, including the FIFA World Cups in 2026 and 2030, as well as the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2027. The agreement also includes rights to documentary series related to these tournaments.

Zee has also launched four dedicated sports channels, Unite8 Sports 1, Unite8 Sports 1 HD, Unite8 Sports 2 and Unite8 Sports 2 HD. The FIFA World Cup is expected to serve as the anchor property for these channels, giving them immediate national visibility.

Yet the question remains: if the opportunity is so attractive, why did the likes of Jio and Sony not go all in?

Off timings

One of the biggest concerns relates to match timings. Most fixtures will be played late at night or in the early hours of the morning for Indian viewers, although a limited number of matches will still fall within prime-time slots. Experts believe these timings could hurt live viewership while increasing demand for highlights, replays and catch-up content, ET reported earlier.

Live Events

Subscriber additions during the tournament are also expected to be concentrated among football enthusiasts. However, retaining those users could prove challenging once the tournament ends, given that Zee doesn’t have other major football properties that could sustain engagement.

Football’s popularity in India also remains geographically concentrated. Unlike cricket, which enjoys nationwide appeal, football viewership is largely driven by audiences in Kolkata, Goa, Maharashtra and the Northeast.Also read: AI boom hands HFCL investors nearly 200% returns in just 6 months. Overheated or undervalued?

Monetization challenges

The economics of the FIFA World Cup have historically been challenging. According to a report by Kotak Institutional Equities, Viacom18 acquired the rights for FIFA World Cup 2022 for around $60 million. Despite each platform reaching more than 80 million viewers across television and digital, monetisation lagged viewership levels. Free streaming on JioCinema and advertiser preference for cricket were among the key reasons.

Football also offers significantly less advertising inventory than cricket. A standard 90-minute football match typically provides only 20-25 minutes of advertising opportunities, whereas cricket allows commercial breaks after overs and key moments throughout a game, the report added.

Kotak says competition for advertising budgets could also intensify as the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup and India’s tour of England are scheduled during June and July. At the same time, FMCG advertising budgets remain under pressure from elevated raw material inflation, while the ban on real-money gaming applications has removed a significant advertiser category.

That said, even if FIFA World Cup 2026 does not fully recover costs, the long-term option value of the 2030 edition remains significant, particularly if the advertising environment improves.

Little-to-no profitability

Sports content remains one of the few categories relatively insulated from disruption by on-demand streaming. Unlike movies or television shows that can be consumed at any time, sporting events derive their value from live viewing. Audiences want to watch matches as they unfold, making sports a powerful driver of viewership and advertising demand.

However, the business is often less profitable than it appears. Broadcasters and streaming platforms pay substantial sums for sports rights while also incurring significant production and distribution expenses. Although marquee sporting events can attract subscribers, boost engagement and reduce churn, the revenue generated often falls short of fully offsetting these investments.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects Zee5 to be the primary beneficiary of the FIFA rights deal rather than Zee’s linear television business. The brokerage noted that the acquisition can be comfortably funded through the company’s net cash position of over Rs 2,500 crore, with payments staggered over time. While it raised its fair value estimate on the stock to Rs 90 from an earlier valuation based on 11x June 2028 earnings to 12x, it maintained its ‘Reduce’ rating, citing persistent structural challenges such as the shift from television to digital platforms, advertisers’ growing preference for cricket and Zee’s market share losses to larger competitors.

A report by Keynote also struck a cautious note. It said Zee’s near-term growth visibility remains weak, with the advertising business continuing to weigh on overall revenue growth over the past four financial years. The brokerage noted that the ongoing shift in consumer attention from linear television to digital platforms remains a significant challenge.

While Zee is pursuing initiatives such as Zee5 and micro-dramas to drive growth, Keynote added: “As for the World Cup, it is uncertain how successful this endeavour will be.”

Will Zee defy odds?

Despite the concerns, early signs have been encouraging. According to company data, FIFA World Cup 2026 attracted more than 100 million viewers across Zee Entertainment’s television, digital and social media platforms during the tournament’s opening weekend.

The company said Zee5 recorded around six million viewers between June 11 and June 14, excluding engagement from the Germany versus Curaçao match that aired after midnight. Average engagement per viewer, including the opening ceremony and live matches, exceeded 190 minutes during the period.

On television, Zee said its Unite8 Sports channels reached an estimated 25 million households during the opening weekend, contributing to overall tournament reach.

AI & FIFA World Cup

This World Cup is far beyond football. According to a report by Bank of America, the 2026 FIFA World Cup could become the world’s first fully AI-driven and data-intensive mega sporting event, where artificial intelligence, real-time analytics and digital infrastructure fundamentally reshape how the game is played, managed and consumed.

The tournament is expected to mark the first time that data itself becomes a primary product. Participating teams will have access to real-time AI models capable of analysing millions of data points, alongside 3D simulations that can assist with match preparation and strategy.

In previous tournaments, advanced analytics often remained an advantage available only to wealthier teams. The report noted that AI could help democratise access to data, giving all participating nations access to similar analytical capabilities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)