Nifty 500 trading has a bullish bias, but only minor bumps expected in near term

The sustained rally in the past month has pushed more than 86% of stocks in the NSE 500 index above their 200-day moving averages (DMA), a crucial technical indicator for assessing long-term trends in individual shares and indices. While the situation points to a strong bullish undertone in the market, the trend indicator may also be pointing to equities being overbought.

Out of the NSE’s top 500 stocks, 430 are trading above the 200 DMA. In the Nifty 50 index, 45 are above the key technical indicator. Among the Nifty stocks, M&M, Power Grid Corp, Hero Motocorp, Adani Ports, Bajaj Auto, Grasim Industries, Shriram Finance, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Hindalco are trading 25-50% above their 200 DMAs.

“The 200-DMA is most followed by long-term investors to gauge the overall sentiment, and the current trend suggests bullish sentiment,” said Jatin Gedia, technical research analyst, Sharekhan. “Also, in the case of a correction, a dip towards the 200-DMA shall provide entry opportunity to those waiting on the sidelines to deploy capital.”When a stock or an index rises above the 200-DMA, it’s a bullish signal, and vice versa. But, when an overwhelming majority of stocks breach the 200-DMA, it is also seen as a contrarian indicator. In the existing scenario, it means the market may be overbought. But analysts do not see a strong reversal in the bullish trend in the near future.

This is the fifth bull run in the Nifty 500 after the crash of 2008. In the earlier four streaks, the index stayed above 200-DMA for 19 to 22 months. This time, it’s the 15th month that the Nifty 500 is trading above its 200-DMA.

“If we just look at the past four of the five streaks of the bull run data, it suggests that we may at worst see minor corrections or consolidation but not a big correction for a couple of months,” said Siddarth Bhamre, head of research, Asit C Mehta.