Emmy Submissions Will Likely Drop Again, Boosts Dark Horse Contenders

TV’s bubble burst is continuing to have an impact on Emmy submissions, with another major drop appearing likely this year in comedy, drama and limited series contenders.

Variety is tracking which programs could land on the Emmy ballots, and has once again found a declining pool of eligible series. There will be around 87 submissions for drama series, 70 for comedy and 32 for limited/anthology, according to the most recent tracker. That’s a total of 189 likely entries across the three marquee races.

Of course, that number could climb, as there are usually a handful of surprises, last-minute launches and obscure entries (some of which self-submit) that appear just before the eligibility window closes. Still, the final number will likely be the lowest in several years — down from 228 in 2025, 229 in 2024 and 309 in 2023. That last number reflects a 33% drop from 2022 due to industry-wide strike delays.

Meanwhile, across all 15 program races, 600 submissions were in contention last year, down from 614 the previous year.

The decline in contenders will also likely mean fewer nominations, as the TV Academy bases the number of nominees in a category on how many programs or individuals are submitted. There are a few exceptions: Outstanding drama and outstanding comedy always recognize eight nominees.

However, there are 80 other standard categories and 30 “area” awards where the number of submissions determines the number of nominees. For instance, in acting categories there must be at least 80 individual submissions to guarantee six nominees. For the past two years, the lead acting categories have been limited to five nominees.

But a shrinking batch of shows could offer a slight upside. With fewer shows for voters to sift through, perhaps smaller, chronically overlooked series might break through.

That could be good news for critically acclaimed but lesser-known entries like HBO’s financial drama “Industry” with My’hala and Marisa Abela, which hasn’t received a nom across all three previous seasons. And perhaps, ABC’s procedural “Will Trent” could catch some heat for its overdue star Ramón Rodríguez.

Regarding other categories, the limited series races have become a haven for some of the most passionate picks in recent years. A smaller screening pile could open the door for contenders like Prime Video’s “Bait,” starring Riz Ahmed, or Starz’s upcoming retelling of “Amadeus.”

It could also pave the way for long-overdue acting recognition. Among the most exciting new entries is NBC’s “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins,” a sharp comedy with an incredible ensemble that may boost performers such as “Saturday Night Live” alum Bobby Moynihan and the consistently excellent Erika Alexander.

“This smaller pool creates opportunities for shows that get lost in the noise,” one strategist tells Variety. “There’s more bandwidth to discover what you might have missed.”

Emmy submissions are due on May 7, with nomination-round voting opening on June 11. This week’s latest projections are below and on the official predictions’ pages.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Emmys Predictions Tracking
(April 23, 2026)

Drama Series
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Euphoria” (HBO Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
“The Testaments” (Hulu)

Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
“Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Retreat” (Prime Video)
“Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)

Limited or Anthology Series
“Beef” (Netflix)
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Half Man” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)

Lead Actor (Drama)
Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Billy Magnussen, “The Audacity” (AMC)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***

Lead Actor (Comedy)
Steve Carell, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tracy Morgan, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

Lead Actor (Limited/Movie)
Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Jamie Bell, “Half Man” (HBO Max) ***
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Beef” (Netflix)
Matthew Rhys, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)

Lead Actress (Drama)
Chase Infiniti, “The Testaments” (Hulu)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
Zendaya, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)

Lead Actress (Comedy)
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Elle Fanning, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow, “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***

Lead Actress (Limited/Movie)
Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan, “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Sarah Pidgeon, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Tessa Thompson, “His and Hers” (Netflix)
Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” (Apple TV)

Supporting Actor (Drama)
Patrick Ball, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Colman Domingo, “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Zach Galifianakis, “The Audacity” (AMC)
Jack Lowden, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max) ***
Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Carlos-Manuel Vesga, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)

Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Ben Kingsley, “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Bobby Moynihan, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” (Apple TV)
Michael Urie, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)

Supporting Actor (Limited/Movie)
Jason Bateman, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Stuart Campbell, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
Richard Gadd, “Half Man” (HBO Max)
David Harbour, “DTF St. Louis” “(HBO Max) ***
Song Kang Ho, “Beef” (Netflix)
Charles Melton, “Beef” (Netflix)
Alessandro Nivola, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)

Supporting Actress (Drama)
Marisa Abela, “Industry” (HBO Max)
Isa Briones, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Taylor Dearden, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Allison Janney, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Sepideh Moafi, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson, “Paradise” (Hulu)
Karolina Wydra, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)

Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Erika Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Danielle Deadwyler, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Li Jun Li, “Spider-Noir” (Prime Video)
Annie Mumolo, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Jessica Williams, “Shrinking” (Apple TV)

Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)
Linda Cardellini, “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
Grace Gummer, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Cailee Spaeny, “Beef” (Netflix)
Naomi Watts, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Beef” (Netflix)
Constance Zimmer, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bissette” (FX)