Long-term SIPs deliver consistent gains as market volatility eases over time

A study by Whiteoak Capital, based on monthly SIP investments in the Sensex TRI (Total Return Index) between August 1996 and April 2026, showed returns in shorter holding periods diverged sharply, while these variations narrowed over longer periods.

For SIPs with a three-year horizon, returns range were wide, with gains of up to 55.6% and losses of as much as 24.6%.

When the investment horizon extended, the losses shrunk but so did the upper end of the returns. For eight years and above, all SIP investments in this study made gains and did not post losses.

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EQUITY PLAY Staying invested makes your bets less risky, with a hold of 8 years and more bringing gains and no losses, shows a study; the downside: long tenures may moderate returns

For a 15-year SIP, returns ranged between roughly 7.3% and 18.2%, which shows the return gap shrunk over longer periods compared to shorter ones.

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“SIPs work well only over longer tenures and ideally should be done for a minimum period of 10 years. This helps you go through 3 market cycles and helps in rupee cost averaging.” says Madhu Nair, CEO, Union Mutual Fund.

The study shows that in three-year periods, SIPs delivered returns above 10% in 67% of instances. This rises steadily with longer holding periods, reaching 95% over 10 years and 98% over 12 to 15 years. Similarly, the likelihood of earning more than 8% is the highest once investments extend beyond a decade. While the chances of returns improved with time, the probability of equity SIP return moderating also went up over longer periods.

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