Metals rally largely priced in, limited upside seen after strong cyclical run: Sandip Sabharwal

Market expert Sandip Sabharwal, in his latest interaction on ET Now, maintained a cautiously selective stance on equities, where stock-specific opportunities exist but broad market conviction remains limited. On Wockhardt, he said the recent regulatory approval is clearly a strong positive from an innovation perspective, especially given the global shortage of novel antibiotics. However, he stressed that the stock is largely driven by “option value” rather than visible earnings, making it difficult to value in a traditional sense. While the approval removes a key uncertainty and validates the pipeline, he pointed out that most of the positive expectations were already priced in due to earlier phase-three progress and anticipation of final clearance. In his view, the near-term upside may therefore be somewhat limited, though he acknowledged that successful commercialisation over time could still lead to meaningful long-term value creation.

On the IT sector, Sabharwal described it as increasingly a trading-oriented space rather than a structural wealth compounder, reflecting slower growth visibility compared to the past. He noted that valuations across the sector have become relatively attractive after the recent correction, and improving sentiment in US technology stocks could also support a spillover rally in India. While long-term growth expectations have moderated to low-to-mid single digits, he still sees room for a near-term rebound of around 10% to 15% in many IT stocks. He highlighted Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services as reasonably valued largecaps at current levels, while suggesting that some midcap IT names could potentially outperform. At the same time, he cautioned that fears around artificial intelligence replacing traditional IT services may be overstated, and that the reality is likely more balanced, which could help sentiment stabilise.

In autos, he remained relatively positive, pointing to improving fundamentals, resilient demand, and reasonable valuations following recent corrections. He highlighted strong performance trends in Maruti Suzuki India, driven by healthy domestic demand, rising exports, and low inventory levels, which together indicate steady underlying momentum. He also noted that Mahindra & Mahindra has shown resilience, supported by stronger-than-expected tractor volumes and a robust medium-term outlook, even though exports form a smaller part of its business compared to peers. Overall, he suggested that both companies appear well positioned, with Maruti benefiting from structural export growth and M&M supported by stable rural and core segment demand trends.

On metals, however, Sabharwal was more cautious, arguing that the recent rally in both ferrous and non-ferrous segments has already captured much of the positive narrative. While acknowledging strength in commodities such as aluminium and steel, supported by both demand factors and global supply disruptions, he cautioned that metal stocks tend to move quickly through cycles. In his view, most companies in the space are now fairly valued relative to their longer-term cyclical range, and much of the optimism is already reflected in prices. He reiterated that metals typically look cheapest at peak earnings and expensive at troughs, suggesting limited upside from current levels after strong outperformance.

Finally, on the broader market, he identified select largecaps such as ICICI Bank and Larsen & Toubro as reasonably priced from a medium-term perspective, while emphasising that macro risks remain the key variable. He pointed to uncertainties around monsoon performance, inflation trends, and interest rate expectations as important domestic factors to watch. Globally, he highlighted geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, as a major swing factor for risk sentiment, noting that resolution could support markets, while prolonged conflict could trigger broader weakness across asset classes.