Ola Electric vs Ather Energy: Which stock looks better after a stellar surge of up to 70% in April?

From being deeply beaten down to staging a swift comeback, shares of Ola Electric Mobility are witnessing a sharp recovery in less than 10 trading sessions. The stock has surged an impressive 68% since the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, rival Ather Energy has also been gaining traction, with its shares rising 16% over the same period.

Despite the recent rebound, Ola Electric’s longer-term performance has remained weak. The stock is still down 75% from its peak of Rs 157, which it touched during the post-listing frenzy after debuting at an issue price of Rs 76 in 2024. In less than two years since listing, the stock now trades below Rs 40, nearly 50% below its issue price, highlighting the extent of the correction.

In sharp contrast, Ather Energy’s share price has soared 172% from its issue price of Rs 321 in less than a year since listing.

What’s fuelling renewed buying?

For Ola, the rally follows a series of positive developments. The company recently prepared its in-house LFP battery for production, a key step that could meaningfully lower EV costs and support wider adoption. It has also secured PLI certification for a key model, improving its eligibility for government incentives.

Demand trends have shown signs of revival as well. March 2026 saw a strong rebound, with a noticeable pick-up in both orders and registrations, indicating a potential turnaround in business performance. In a significant milestone, Ola Electric became the first EV company in India to cross 1 million cumulative vehicle registrations, according to VAHAN data. The achievement underlines the company’s scale and reflects the broader momentum in India’s electric mobility space.

Ather Energy, currently the No.3 player in the electric two-wheeler market, reported record sales of 35,688 units in March, up 128% year-on-year (YoY), translating into a 19% market share. Notably, this marked the fifth instance of monthly sales crossing 20,000 units, all achieved in FY2026, and the first time it has gone past the 30,000 mark. For the full year, Ather sold 2,39,118 units, crossing the 2,00,000 milestone for the first time.

Capital’s EV boost

At a broader level, policy support has also played a key role in lifting sentiment. A major trigger has been the proposed Delhi EV policy, which aims to ban the registration of petrol two-wheelers in the national capital from April 2028.

The draft Delhi Electric Vehicle Policy 2026-2030 mandates that only electric two-wheelers can be registered from FY29 onwards, with the objective of accelerating EV adoption and reducing pollution. “Through tax exemptions, incentives, and expanded charging infrastructure, we want to accelerate EV adoption and build a sustainable transport system,” said Transport Minister Pankaj Kumar Singh.

Under the draft policy, buyers of electric two-wheelers in Delhi could receive a subsidy of up to Rs 30,000 in the first year from the notification.

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Which one should you buy?

Brokerages have also turned cautious on Ola Electric Mobility off late. Goldman Sachs recently downgraded Ola Electric to Neutral and cut its target price to Rs 26 from Rs 52. It has lowered its FY26 to FY28 revenue estimates and now expects a mid single-digit market share beyond FY30E, compared with earlier projections of low teens. The brokerage also flagged that continued EBITDA losses and capital expenditure could lead to a fundraise over the next 12-18 months.

Similarly, Citi downgraded the stock to Sell from Buy and slashed its target price by 51% to Rs 27 from Rs 55. It cited ongoing challenges in volume growth, slower-than-expected EV penetration in the two-wheeler segment and the impact of GST cuts. Citi also pointed to market share losses, service-related issues, intense competition and negative customer perception as key concerns.

In contrast, sentiment around Ather Energy remains constructive. Ambit Capital initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 781, highlighting its strong competitive positioning.

Ambit expects electric scooter penetration to rise from 16% in FY25 to around 28% by FY30E, driven by falling battery costs and continued value engineering. While scooters dominate currently, motorcycles represent a large untapped opportunity, accounting for over 60% of the market. Ather’s Ritza, EL platform and Zenith are expected to help expand its presence across segments.

The brokerage also pointed to Ather’s strong technology-driven moat, supported by its powertrain capabilities, software and sustained R&D investments. Vertical integration is likely to improve cost efficiency and reduce reliance on subsidies, while in-house design capabilities enable faster product rollouts and better supply chain control. Pricing discipline, brand strength and charging infrastructure further support its positioning.

Looking ahead, Ambit believes Ather’s new platforms and expanding portfolio could drive profitability. The modular EL platform is expected to enable entry into the sub-Rs 1.25 lakh segment and support scale. Gradual capacity additions, along with better utilisation and higher integration, could improve margins. The brokerage expects EBITDA margins to improve to 10% by FY30E from a 9% operating loss in 9MFY26.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)