Pharma Q4 outlook mixed: Hospitals steady, generics face revlimid drag

ET Intelligence Group: Pharmaceuticals and healthcare companies are set for a mixed March-quarter. Hospital chains are expected to deliver steady growth while generic drugmakers face pressure from the absence of Revlimid-related sales and pricing headwinds. Lupin is expected to deliver strong growth in revenue, margin and profit, while Divi’s is likely to benefit from improving contract development demand and operating leverage. Sun Pharma and Torrent are expected to post steady growth led by diversified portfolios and domestic strength, while Apollo Hospitals may see resilient traction across hospitals, pharmacy and diagnostics.

Sun Pharma is expected to benefit from strong momentum in India and Europe with incremental improvement in the US led by specialty products. New launches and a higher specialty contribution are expected to support growth while margins face sequential pressure from higher research and development (R&D) spends.

Aurobindo Pharma is likely to report single-digit revenue growth supported by steady performance across regions other than the US where sales are likely to fall by 10% due to slack in gRevlimid sales. Europe may grow in double-digits driven by higher biosimilars sales. The operating profit before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) is expected to remain flat while Ebitda margin may decline by 80-100 basis-points (bps). Key monitorables include ramp-up at the 6-APA plant and resolution of USFDA observations at Eugia facilities.

Dr Reddy’s will be another company to be affected by reduced business of gRevlimid following patent expiry and one-time impact of shelf stock adjustments. Its India business is likely to fare better, supported by strong traction in pain, respiratory and gastro segments. Ebitda could decline 28-30% with around 600 bps of margin contraction. Key monitorables include semaglutide progress in Canadian market and brand litigation with Novo Nordisk for semaglutide products in India.

Lupin’s US revenue is expected to be strong driven by traction in Tolvaptan, Mirabegron, g-Spiriva and Glucagon, partly offset by Albuterol pricing pressure. Domestic sales are likely to grow in double-digits, driven by higher focus on chronic therapies, while emerging markets are expected to drive growth. Ebitda is projected to jump around 50% year-on-year. The margin may decline sequentially due to higher R&D spends, elevated marketing costs and absence of PLI income.

Cipla‘s sales are expected to decline as the US market faces higher competition in g-Revlimid business and lower Lanreotide sales following supply disruptions. Its India business is expected to be driven by respiratory and anti-diabetic therapies, offset by subdued performance in pain. Ebitda is expected to fall 32-38% with margins contracting by 700-800 bps, reflecting lower US contribution and pressure on gross margins.

Apollo Hospitals revenue growth to be supported by steady performance across segments. The hospitals segment sales growth could be in double-digits, aided by new bed additions and increase in average revenue per patient. HealthCo revenue is projected to grow in high double-digits, driven by strong offline pharmacy sales, while the Ebitda loss of Apollo 24/7 may narrow. Consolidated Ebitda is expected to rise in double-digits with margin likely to grow by 50 bps. Torrent Pharma’s revenue is likely to rise in high double-digits, led by consolidation of JB Pharma from January 2026 and steady organic growth. Divi’s Laboratories revenue is expected to grow in double-digits on a year-on-year and sequential basis, driven by strong momentum in custom synthesis (CS) and a low-base nutraceuticals recovery. However, generic API sales are likely to decline year-on-year, despite a sequential rebound, reflecting pricing pressure.