Reliance Industries share price target: What are brokerages saying after Q1 results?

Shares of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries rose over a per cent to Rs 1,342 on the BSE on Monday after the conglomerate reported June quarter earnings that topped street expectations on the back of strong growth across its businesses.

Revenue from operations rose 25% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 3.11 lakh crore in the June quarter from Rs 2.48 lakh crore a year ago. Net profit, however, declined 22% YoY to Rs 20,946 crore due to an exceptional item related to the sale of its stake in Asian Paints in the corresponding period last year.

The company reported double-digit growth across all its business segments. EBITDA for the quarter increased 10% YoY to Rs 54,067 crore.

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Reliance Industries share price: Buy, sell or hold?

Morgan Stanley has maintained its Overweight rating on Reliance Industries, continuing to name it its top pick, after the company’s June quarter earnings beat street estimates on both profitability and quality. The brokerage said the outperformance was driven by a strong showing in the fuel refining and chemicals businesses. It highlighted that the gross refining margin increased to around $14.5 per barrel, which was 25% above the mid-cycle level despite headwinds from crude premiums. Morgan Stanley also noted the management’s confidence that the Retail business will double its EBITDA by FY29. Nomura has maintained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries while raising its target price to Rs 1,690, implying an upside of around 27.4%. The brokerage said Reliance delivered a record first quarter, with consolidated EBITDA rising 11% YoY and 8% QoQ to beat its estimate by 6%. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected earnings from the O2C business, which exceeded estimates by 13%, and the Upstream segment, which beat forecasts by 27%, while Jio performed in line with expectations.

Nomura has largely retained its FY27 EBITDA forecasts, as higher O2C estimates offset slightly lower expectations for the Retail business, and has raised its target price after rolling its valuation forward by a quarter. The brokerage noted that the stock is currently trading at 9.1x FY28F EV/EBITDA and 17.7x FY28F P/E.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) has reiterated its Buy rating on Reliance Industries with a revised target price of Rs 1,550, implying an upside of around 17% from the current market price. The brokerage said stronger profitability in the energy business drove EBITDA growth, offsetting softer performance in Reliance Retail. It highlighted a rebound in the O2C and E&P segments, while Jio remained stable. MOSL expects consolidated EBITDA and PAT to grow at a CAGR of around 9-10% over FY26-28, underpinning its positive outlook.

Nuvama has maintained a Buy rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 1,765, indicating an upside of around 33%. The brokerage noted that Q1FY27 EBITDA rose 11% YoY to Rs 475 billion, supported by the O2C and Digital businesses, although Retail remained a weak spot. It also highlighted the company’s rapid expansion in solar capacity, which is expected to improve profitability, and believes renewable energy initiatives will support future earnings. Nuvama added that the stock is currently trading at an estimated 21x FY28E EPS, leaving room for further upside.

Emkay has retained its Buy rating on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 1,680, implying an upside of around 27%. The brokerage said the company’s Q1FY27 consolidated EBITDA and PAT exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in the O2C and upstream businesses, while Retail remained under pressure due to weaker margins. Emkay also highlighted stable Jio margins and management’s confidence in doubling Retail EBITDA by FY29. The brokerage expects improved O2C performance to remain a key growth driver and has rolled forward its valuation to June 2028 earnings.

Reliance Q1 highlights

Jio Platforms posted a 9% YoY rise in first-quarter profit to Rs 7,764 crore. EBITDA growth during the quarter was partly offset by higher finance costs and increased depreciation following the capitalisation of 5G assets.

Reliance’s oil-to-chemicals business recorded a 30% YoY increase in revenue to Rs 2.01 lakh crore ($21.3 billion), driven mainly by a 54.1% YoY jump in crude oil prices. The increase was partially offset by lower production due to a planned turnaround.

The retail business reported a 14% YoY decline in profit to Rs 2,806 crore, while revenue grew 7% YoY to Rs 90,408 crore. Adjusted for the demerger of the Consumer Brands business, gross revenue increased 12% YoY, with double-digit underlying growth across the Grocery, Fashion & Lifestyle, and Consumer Electronics segments.

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In the oil and gas segment, first-quarter revenue rose 3% YoY, supported by higher oil and condensate price realisation from KG D6, better gas price realisation and production from CBM, and favourable exchange rate movement. These gains were partly offset by lower gas production and lower gas price realisation from KG D6.

JioStar delivered a 31% YoY increase in EBITDA from operations despite a challenging macro environment. JioHotstar recorded its highest-ever average monthly active users at 530 million during the quarter.

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