Reliance share price target hiked to Rs 1,910: Why Goldman, CLSA, and Morgan Stanley are betting big

Reliance Industries, India’s most valuable company by market capitalisation, is back in focus with Goldman Sachs lifting its target price to Rs 1,910 and a clutch of global brokerages predicting double-digit upside from current levels, even as the stock has shed 13% weighed down by a bruising quarter for its oil-to-chemicals business disrupted by the West Asia conflict.

RIL bulls believe the worst of the O2C pressure is likely behind, the much-awaited Jio IPO is drawing closer, and Reliance’s integrated downstream positioning makes it better placed than most to benefit from a tightening refining and petrochemicals system.

Goldman Sachs, maintaining its Buy rating, raised its 12-month SOTP-based target to Rs 1,910, the highest among brokerages, after Q4 results. It continues to value the core refining and petrochemicals business at 8.0x FY27 EV/EBITDA, offline retail at 33.0x December 2027 EV/EBITDA, and the high-growth TMT business via DCF at a 10.5% WACC and 4% terminal growth rate.

In the weak O2C quarter, Goldman said refining underperformed as elevated crude premiums and logistics costs, freight and insurance, offset higher product cracks, while fuel marketing margins were pressured by under-recoveries. Petrochemicals were mixed, with naphtha cracking under pressure partially offset by stronger gas cracking.

“In refining, access to Russian and Venezuela crude should support realization,” Goldman noted, adding that naphtha cracking spreads have started recovering in April. Tighter polymer supply amid naphtha shortages, leading to Asian cracker shutdowns, and Middle East disruptions should support margins.

Also Read | JPMorgan finds Reliance Industries share valuation comfortable but flags O2C as uncertain spot

“In a tightening system with feedstock shortages, integrated downstream companies are better positioned,” Goldman said, expecting sequential margin expansion into the June quarter. It noted that two-thirds of Reliance’s petrochemical feedstock remains relatively unimpacted by the disruptions.

On retail, Goldman flagged topline growth of approximately 14% year-on-year, adjusting for the RCPL demerger. led by grocery and fashion, while RCPL’s revenue doubled year-on-year. JioMart stood out sharply, with average daily orders up over 300% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter.

Jio IPO: A big trigger ahead?

Nomura, with a target of Rs 1,640, flagged what could be the single biggest near-term catalyst for the stock: reports suggesting Reliance is likely to file the DRHP for Jio’s IPO as early as May. Nomura said this “could serve as a key catalyst for Reliance as well as the telecom sector.” It cut its SOTP-based target, lowering its retail EV/EBITDA multiple to 30x from 35x on slower growth estimates, while keeping FY27 EBITDA broadly unchanged as higher O2C estimates offset marginally lower retail and telecom forecasts.

Ambit echoed the IPO theme, calling the expected Jio Platforms listing “a meaningful positive catalyst,” arguing it validates the company’s low-risk capex approach. It also pushed back on holding company discount concerns, noting that even post-listing, Reliance will retain strategic assets deeply intertwined with Jio, including data centers, fiber, and EPC services, while continuing to act as a high-credit-rating internal bank, using legacy energy cash flows to fund aggressive bets. On the risk of continued FII selling, Ambit was dismissive, saying recent global investor interactions suggest major India and Reliance underweights, which would actually negate the selling pressure.

Also Read | Reliance Jio IPO delayed? India’s largest public offer has some good news in May

CLSA, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan stay constructive

CLSA retained its Outperform rating with a target of Rs 1,800, cutting FY27-28 EPS estimates by 2% but calling the risk-reward attractive. It highlighted strong performance of yet-to-be-valued FMCG and media businesses, confidence in approaching commissioning of new energy capacity in solar and battery manufacturing, and rising momentum in hyper-local businesses as key positives. “Improvement in performance of retail and O2C over the coming quarters could be other triggers for the stock,” CLSA said.

Morgan Stanley, with a target of Rs 1,803, noted earnings were largely in line with Street estimates but EBITDA missed its own estimate by 3%, due to higher upstream oil operating costs. It flagged that Reliance is seeing some improvement in crude sourcing after a very tough March, when Hormuz-related disruptions drove freight rates up 10 to 15 times. It also pointed to 14% top-line growth in consumer retail, 29% quarter-on-quarter growth in quick commerce, and the start of new energy cell and module production.

Margin quality in energy, chemicals and retail needs to improve for consensus upgrades, the brokerage said.

JP Morgan, maintaining Overweight with a target of Rs 1,675, acknowledged the modeling difficulty around O2C given high variance in prices and costs, calling the Q4 miss “an example”, but said medium-term margins for Reliance’s commodity businesses should turn out better than earlier modeled, with a potentially material impact on earnings. It called relative valuations “comfortable.”

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