The crypto world braces for Elizabeth Warren’s return. Has anything changed?

As background, the bad blood between Warren and the crypto industry stems from the Biden years. That’s when former Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler set out to basically extinguish the U.S. crypto industry with a spate of lawsuits and investigations. Among Washington D.C. insiders, many saw Warren and her staffers as the architects of Gensler’s campaign.

In response to that Biden-era legal onslaught, the crypto industry overcame its longtime disdain of Washington politics, and it waged a big-money campaign in 2024 to elect President Trump, and to drive critics from Congress. The campaign worked stunningly well. Crypto firms helped sweep Trump into office, leading to a hands-off regulatory environment that left Warren fuming ineffectively on the sidelines.

Now, the shoe is on the other foot again. Despite blowing around $170 million on campaign ads to boost Republican candidates in the midterms, the crypto industry had what one lobbyist described simply as an “awful night.” Not only did crypto firms fail to do anything to stop the Democrats’ blue wave, they made tactical choices that look downright foolish in hindsight. That includes spending over $63 million in a failed bid to defeat crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who not only won his Senate race by a comfortable margin, but will likely become Chair of the Agriculture Committee, which oversees commodities regulation.

When they are wielding committee gavels next January (which is widely expected but not confirmed), don’t expect Warren and Brown to do the crypto industry any favors. But it doesn’t necessarily follow that we’ll see a return to the scorched earth tactics of the Biden years. Ron Hammond, Head of Policy at Wintermute, notes that a recent Time essay by Warren appeared to telegraph her agenda. The essay puts CEOs of various industries on notice and promises to target Trump family corruption, but makes no mention at all of crypto—potentially a sign the industry will not be an immediate target.

Hammond, who is deeply plugged into the D.C. crypto scene, also noted that the crypto firms that stand to lose the most from Warren’s return are those that are seeking out or have obtained banking charters. In this scenario, Warren may ally with traditional banks, which earlier this year helped smother the Clarity Act, in order to block or roll back those charters.

Warren and her allies will be unable to make any drastic moves, though, because the Trump-appointed heads of key financial agencies—including the SEC, CFTC, and OCC—will hold their positions until the end of his term. This means that, for the next year or two, we can expect moves by Warren that are symbolic in nature, but that point to where she and the Democratic Party are heading in 2028.

Politics is never static, and while it’s a safe bet that Warren is not going to become a Bitcoin HODLer, there is a world where the Senator becomes less antagonistic. As an olive branch, she could acknowledge the undeniable benefits of blockchain innovations like stablecoins, as well as the popularity of crypto among younger Americans.

As for the crypto industry, the midterm results delivered a long overdue lesson that politics in Washington D.C. is a long game and that, while trying to bludgeon critics with PAC money may feel satisfying, it’s not the most effective strategy. And while crypto CEOs will never see eye-to-eye with Liz Warren—their respective libertarian and progressive worldviews are simply too different—there is room to acknowledge her advocacy for consumers is sincere, even if it is at times misguided.

Maybe all of this is naive, but last week’s election results felt like a break from politics as usual. Voters appear exhausted by jerks on both the left and the right and, for now at least, moderation is the order of the day. How refreshing would it be if Liz Warren and the crypto industry came to recognize that too?

Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts

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The way we were. Remembering the tungsten cube fad of 2021.