The rules of getting ahead are changing in the AI era. Not everyone stands to benefit

For the past few months, Microsoft chief economic opportunity officer Aneesh Raman has been predicting the death of the traditional career ladder as AI reshapes the workplace. In its place, he envisions a “climbing wall,” where progress isn’t always upward and workers chart their own paths based on their unique skills, interests, and opportunities.

But if career advancement becomes less predictable, what does that mean for women and other historically marginalized groups, who research suggests benefit from clear criteria for raises and promotions? I put that question to Raman at Aspen Digital’s WIN Summit in late October.

Raman acknowledged that losing the familiar career playbook could initially be intimidating, but argued that it could ultimately give workers more freedom to advance in ways that suit their individual strengths and ambitions. “Over time, you start to climb in ways that are unique to you,” he said.

Part of the answer, Raman said, is “radical transparency”: ensuring workers understand how AI is changing their jobs and what opportunities they have to shape their own careers.

But if AI is helping rewrite the rules of career advancement, there’s reason to question whether women and men will benefit equally. New research from Nicole Smith, a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, found that in more AI-exposed occupations, men’s employment grew 6.3% for each one-point increase in an occupation’s exposure score, while women’s barely changed. Among workers with a high school diploma or less, women’s employment fell.

Smith also pointed to a divide in how men and women are approaching the technology.  Men are much more optimistic about AI than women, she said, and may be more inclined to use it to pursue new opportunities. “We need to change our mindset and to make sure that we open these conversations to women,” she said.

Raman, meanwhile, believes women could have an edge in the AI era. He argues that women over-index on uniquely human skills, such as empathy and judgement that will become increasingly valuable as AI transforms work. He predicts that more women will become CEOs and that women’s representation on corporate boards could climb from roughly a third to half or more.

The question now is whether employers can make career advancement more flexible without making the path to success less equitable.

Kristin Stoller
Editorial Director, Fortune Live Media
kristin.stoller@fortune.com

Fortune Office Hours

This week, author and career coach Jeremy Schifeling answers your burning workplace questions. Responses have been edited for length and clarity.

Q: I’ve applied to nearly 200 jobs over the past few months and have heard almost nothing back. No interviews, often not even a rejection email—just silence. I’m starting to wonder if AI screening tools are filtering me out before a human ever sees my application. 

But another part of me wonders if that’s an excuse, and the real problem is me: my résumé, my experience, or skills that no longer match what employers want. How do I figure out which it is, and what should I change?

A: First, take a breath. Nearly 200 applications and silence isn’t a verdict on you—it’s a sign the strategy is broken, not the person.

Here’s the truth about AI screening: it’s rarely a robot rejecting you. Most applicant tracking systems just sort and rank. The real problem is volume. Thanks to AI, everyone’s applying everywhere—in my latest survey of 236 job seekers, 81% now use AI to apply, and the people who applied the most got hired the least. When a posting gets 1,000 applicants, recruiters stop reading after the first few dozen good-enough matches.

So how do you figure out which it is? Run a quick test. Pick the five roles you’re most qualified for and compare your resume to each posting, line by line. If the posting’s top skills aren’t in the top third of your resume, that’s a fixable resume problem. If they are and you still hear nothing, it’s a channel problem.

And the channel fix is the big one: stop sending application No. 201. For every role you really want, find one person at that company—an alum, a former colleague, a friend of a friend—and ask for 15 minutes of advice. A referral moves you from the bottom of the pile to the top of it.

Fewer applications, more humans. That’s the whole game now.

Have a workplace situation that you’re unsure how to navigate or a scenario worth unpacking? Send it our way anonymously via this form.

Watercooler

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AI boss. Who is actually in charge of AI? Different C-suite executives are being tapped at every company. Bloomberg