Are Amazon and Google polishing Anthropic IPO numbers? Michael Burry raises big question amid global AI crash

As the global AI sell-off intensifies, investors are questioning whether IPO-bound Anthropic can sustain its $1.5 trillion valuation ambition. Prominent US investor Michael Burry has also raised doubts about whether the AI firm’s major partners, including Amazon, Google’s parent company Alphabet and Microsoft, are helping polish its financials ahead of its planned IPO.

Anthropic this month reported revenue of nearly $17 billion for the third quarter, marking an extraordinary jump from $1.4 billion in the year-ago period. The latest figures, disclosed in an amended IPO filing, offer investors a closer look at the AI company’s financial performance as it prepares for a potential blockbuster stock market debut. However, Burry is not convinced.

The market expert, who gained popularity after correctly predicting the 2008 Global Financial crisis, raised more concerns about Anthropic’s IPO numbers. “Not only is the company priced for optimism…it is betting its entire existence on that optimism,” he wrote in a Substack post.

Also read | Aswath Damodaran trims his Anthropic IPO valuation to $1.45 trillion; Dean of valuation explains why

Burry zeroed in on Anthropic’s steep decline in one expense metric in the quarterly results. Sales, marketing and partnership expenses fell to 14% of Q3 revenue, down from 19% in the second quarter and 22% in the first. The Claude-maker relies on its hyperscaler partners to sell its models through their cloud marketplaces. The partners collect the revenue, keep a portion and pass the remainder to the AI firm.

The ‘Big Short’ investor highlighted that the sales through these channels made up 48% of Anthropic’s revenue in the first half of 2026, before slipping to nearly 40% in the third quarter. According to Anthropic’s filing, the decline in the expense was “primarily driven by a decrease in revenue generated from sales through channel partners as a percentage of total revenue and changes in the terms of our channel partner distribution arrangements”. This is what caught Burry’s attention.

Burry said the channel partner distribution arrangements between Anthropic and its partners are negotiable. “Could it be that Anthropic’s magnificent partners are helping Anthropic dress up results for the IPO? Yes, it could be. Every little bit helps,” he questioned. “At the very least, investors should be aware that suppressing sales and marketing expense growth pre-IPO is one of the more venerable tricks in a very dirty old book.”While the market veteran did not name which of Anthropic’s partners he was hinting at, Amazon. Google-parent Alphabet and Microsoft are some of its biggest associates.

Also read | Michael Burry says Anthropic IPO papers show AI industry is ‘catastrophically vulnerable’. What the ‘Big Short’ investor sees

Global AI frenzy fizzles out

Artificial intelligence-linked stocks plunged on fears of tougher AI regulation after Democrats won ‌control of the US Congress, defeating President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the midterm elections. Democrats’ victory sparked concerns that tighter regulation could slow the AI infrastructure buildout that has helped lift stocks to record highs this year.

Nasdaq dropped 6% to record its worst drop since the infamous Covid-19 crash in March 2020. The tech-heavy index also entered a technical ‘correction’ territory, a 10% drop from ⁠its October 6 record-high close. South Korea’s Kospi, which was seen as the face of the sharp volatility around the AI frenzy, also felt the pain, crashing more than 9% to trigger circuit breaker.

Also read | AI bubble is coming, and there is no way out! Aswath Damodaran explains what investors should do before the crash begins

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.