Oil Price Today (April 16): Crude oil hovers below $95 amid Iran war peace talks. Where are prices headed?

Oil prices inched lower in early Thursday trade as markets grew hopeful that the U.S. and Iran may extend their two-week ceasefire and continue diplomatic efforts to resolve the West Asia conflict. Sentiment was further supported by reports that Iran could allow ships to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns.

The White House said on Wednesday it was hopeful of reaching an agreement to end the conflict with Iran, but also warned that economic pressure on Tehran would intensify if it does not cooperate.

Crude oil price on April 16

Brent crude futures fell 44 cents, or 0.5%, to $94.49 a barrel at 0021 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 70 cents, or 0.8%, to $90.59 a barrel.

According to a Reuters report, one source briefed by Tehran said that the country may permit ships to move freely along the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz if a deal is struck to avoid further escalation.

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has caused the largest disruption ever to global oil and gas supplies, with Iran restricting traffic through the strait, a key route that accounts for around 20% of global oil and LNG flows.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian officials are considering returning to Pakistan for another round of talks as early as this weekend, after discussions ended without progress on Sunday. Pakistan’s army chief, acting as a mediator, arrived in Tehran on Wednesday in an effort to prevent further escalation.

What are experts saying?

Until a formal agreement is reached and normal navigation resumes, WTI prices are likely to remain volatile within the $80 to $100 range.

Brokerage firm Macquarie noted that even if tensions ease, oil prices are likely to stay supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move toward $110 as flows through the Strait of Hormuz normalise. It added that if disruptions extend through April, Brent could still rise to $150 per barrel.

Looking ahead, crude prices could move higher from current levels. According to Kayanat Chainwala of Kotak Securities, oil may rise to $120 per barrel in the near term and potentially touch $150 if the conflict continues.

Nuvama Institutional Equities echoes the same view. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels per day, could push crude prices to the $110–150 per barrel range.

Market experts believe crude may be entering a structurally higher price phase. Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President at Religare Broking, said the current ceasefire is temporary and a return to pre-war levels of $70 to $75 could take several months. In the near term, he expects crude to remain within a range of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)